The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped by 0.2 points in January to 99.3, but it remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the ten components that make up the index, three increased while seven decreased. The most notable change was a six-point rise in expected real sales volume. The Uncertainty Index increased by seven points from December to reach 91, driven mainly by more business owners expressing uncertainty about whether it is a good time to expand.
Andy Markowski, Connecticut State Director for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), commented on the report: “NFIB’s national Uncertainty Index increased in January, and finding qualified workers here in Connecticut remains challenging for many small businesses. This underscores the need for Governor Lamont and legislators in Hartford to refrain from saddling small businesses with additional taxes and mandates that will make hiring and maintaining affordable customer service even more difficult. As the legislative session continues, lawmakers must prioritize policies that will help Connecticut small business owners feel more confident about keeping their doors open and growing jobs.”
The NFIB also released a new episode of its “Small Business by the Numbers” podcast alongside the report.
In January, 13% of small business owners cited insurance costs or availability as their main concern, an increase of four points since December and matching levels last seen in December 2018. Sixty percent reported capital outlays over the past six months, up four points from December and marking the highest level since November 2023.
A net negative six percent of owners reported paying higher interest rates on recent loans, down three points from December, suggesting credit markets may be improving for small borrowers. Sixteen percent named labor quality as their top issue—down three points from December—continuing a three-month decline.
The share of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose six points to a net 16% (seasonally adjusted). Inventory gains also increased by four points to a net 3%, reaching their highest level since January 2023.
Supply chain disruptions affected 62% of respondents to some degree in January—a slight decrease from December—with only four percent reporting significant impact.
A net 26% reported raising average selling prices in January (down four points), which remains above historical averages and indicates ongoing inflationary pressure. Looking ahead three months, a net 32% plan price increases (up four points).
Business health showed improvement: fourteen percent rated their business as excellent (up five points), while those rating it fair dropped seven points to twenty-seven percent.
According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted thirty-one percent had job openings they could not fill in January—a two-point drop but still above historical averages. Of those hiring or trying to hire, eighty-eight percent said there were few or no qualified applicants.
The Small Business Employment Index fell nearly one point to 101.6 after reaching its highest mark since March 2025 last month; however, it remains above historical averages.
Capital expenditures were made by sixty percent of owners over six months—the highest rate since November 2023—but only eighteen percent plan such spending soon, which is historically weak.
A net negative six percent reported higher nominal sales over three months (up two points). Inventory assessments suggest stocks are adequate for most businesses; only a net negative three percent saw inventories as too low.
Inflation concerns persisted: twelve percent called it their main problem—unchanged from December—and government regulations rose two points as a primary concern at nine percent.
Other findings show that eighteen percent cited taxes as their biggest issue (down two points), making it the top concern overall. Labor costs remained steady at nine percent citing them as their main challenge.
For more than eighty years, NFIB has advocated for small and independent business owners nationwide—including Connecticut—by addressing workforce challenges and promoting economic trends that support community vitality (source). The organization focuses on issues such as tax policy and regulation (source), representing members across Connecticut (source) under leadership including a state director (source). The group continues efforts to foster growth and stability among small businesses through advocacy work (source).
The survey was conducted among randomly selected NFIB members during January 2026.
